Democratic representative from California Adam Schiff discusses why he thinks American democracy is in trouble, which he lays out in his new book "Midnight In Washington: How We Almost Lost Our Democracy And Still Could.". Preview of Spotify. The crew looks at the issues that have shaped the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races and rounds up some of the other local races and ballot measures around the country. Mona Chalabi of FiveThirtyEight.com joins NPR's Rachel Martin for a look at who those people are. The crew discusses how President Bidens executive action that forgives up to $20,000 of student loan debt will impact politics and the economy. It was a night of firsts, with the first primaries of 2022 taking place in Texas and President Bidens first real State of the Union speech. The FBI released nationwide crime numbers from 2020 this week that will likely contribute to the already tense political debate over crime and policing. While it appears unlikely that 17 Republicans will join Democrats in voting to convict the former president, the evidence presented could help shape the views of the public regarding what happened at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Plus, they debate the best way to ask Americans about their political identity. Institutions are the rules of the game of our societies that direct our everyday lives in fundamental ways. The podcast crew discusses what Rep. Liz Cheney might do next with her message and what an independent bid for president might entail. If we said there was a 70 percent chance a candidate would win a race, did that actually happen 70 percent of the time? They also introduce a new FiveThirtyEight collaboration with Ipsos aimed at polling Americans about the issues they care most about in the run up to the midterms. In this live taping of Model Talk in Washington, D.C., Nate and Galen break down the current forecasts for the Senate, House and gubernatorial races. Galen and Nate discuss what to make of it in this installment of Model Talk.". President Biden delivered his second State of the Union address on Tuesday to a newly divided Congress. With two new hosts, Anjali and Prateek, the second season of The Big Story will feature longer and well-rounded discussions with experts across science, culture, technology, politics, and more. heritage commons university of utah. They also scrutinize a new survey that suggests most Americans think "The West Wing" and other political TV shows are reflective of how politics works. Staff writer at The Atlantic Elaine Godfrey and political science professor Danny Hayes discuss the role local news plays in society and what happens when it erodes. How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. What do we know, how confidently do we know it and what do we know we dont know? 3 min read. What do we know about the novel coronavirus, and what do we know we don't know? The results are mixed in terms of which factions of both parties performed well and the marquee Republican Senate primary race in Pennsylvania is still close to call and could remain that way for days. Joining the podcast are Andra Gillespie, political science professor at Emory University, Besheer Mohamed, senior researcher at Pew Research Center, and Stacey Holman, the director of PBSs recent documentary series The Black Church.". My theme song for the "What's the Point" podcast from FiveThirtyEight, a podcast about our data age. History professor Yohuru Williams speaks with Galen Druke about how the protest movement sparked by George Floyd's murder compares with past social justice movements. They also talk about how the California recall election is shaping up after a recent poll showed increased support for recalling current Governor Gavin Newsom. In the wake of the January 6th attack on the Capitol, academics and journalists have increasingly taken the possibility of future political violence in America seriously. We speak with journalist Sasha Issenberg about how that happened. 00:14:18 - Federal health agencies asked states to pause in their use of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine while U.S. officials investigate reports of an extre House Minority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and U.S. President Donald Trump attend a signing ceremony for H.R. In early January of 2020, then-President Trump encouraged Raffensperger to help overturn the election results in Georgia. The crew reacts to the results in Tuesdays primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon. He rejected the presidents requests and has consistently spoken out against conspiracy theories surrounding the election. During a punchy episode of FiveThirtyEight's now daily politics podcast on Wednesday, Silver pushed back forcefully on anyone out there accusing him or his website of getting the 2020 election. Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. They also break down what that means for future cases and what it means for the legitimacy of the court overall. Pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson joins the crew to discuss a new survey that categorizes voters into at least four ideological quadrants and tries to imagine how voters would align if America were a multi-party democracy. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what to make of the divergence between the conventional wisdom that Republicans will do very well in the midterms and polling showing Democrats leading in numerous competitive Senate races. Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst at The New York Times, joins the crew to discuss the results of the latest Times/Siena College midterm polling. According to a new poll from the Wall Street Journal, Hispanic voters are now split evenly between the Democratic and Republican parties, just one year after 60 percent voted for Democratic House candidates. Raffensperger's new book is called Integrity Counts.". This research library service enables you to: Search more than 2,489,000 U.S. broadcasts using closed captioning; Borrow broadcasts on DVDs; View and Cite short streamed clips; Compare and Contrast perspectives across networks, stations and time; and Place video quotes within your commentary. The crew looks to the speeches from the past weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference for indications about where the Republican party is headed. Later, Monica Potts joins to discuss why voters sometimes contradict their partisan beliefs on ballot measures. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Join. Listeners wanted to know what to make of the NYC mayoral race, whether primary races tell us anything about the midterm elections, what voting system is the best, the likelihood of filibuster reform and, of course, whether or not hot dogs can be considered sandwiches. They also check in on the results from two recent primary elections in Ohio and announce the launch of FiveThirtyEights Redistricting Tracker. 2,. The crew discusses what high gas prices have meant for politics historically and outline the debates in Washington over how to bring those prices down. Galen and Nate react to former President Trump's entrance into the 2024 presidential race and debate he stands in a possible matchup against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Then the team debates if a surge of women registering to vote in June could be linked to the Supreme Courts recent abortion decision. The crew discusses why the Republican National Committee chose to censure Representatives Cheney and Kinzinger and how different parts of the party view the violent events of January 6th, 2021. Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. Micah Cohen and Kaleigh Rogers also join to talk about why Republicans are not backing a bipartisan commission to investigate the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. 10 Wednesday AM Reads. They also ask whether the Republican Party can coalesce around an alternative to former President Donald Trump and whether President Bidens recent dismissal of the polls is a good or bad use of polling. Galen Druke speaks with POLITICO Europe's Cornelius Hirsch and Clea Caulcutt about the dynamics at play in the French presidential election. We assess the state of American democracy, based on a new survey from Bright Line Watch, a group of political scientists that monitors threats to our democratic systems. robert kraft granddaughter. Why 10 Republicans Voted For Impeachment 300 views about 2 years ago 34:52 is it illegal to wear military uniform in australia. James Acton is a physicist and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. We hear about the decade-long relationship between the two of them, one that dates back to the Kennedys arrival in Washington in the mid-50s, and hear fascinating observations these women make about each other. Galen Druke speaks with George Washington University economist Tara Sinclair about the economics behind Americans pessimistic assessment of the economy. They also discuss the trend of amateur candidates running in and winning House primary elections, and ask whether Biden's dismissal of the polls is a "good or bad use of polling.". Nate Silver's. They also break down the governor's race in New Jersey and other elections around the country. How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government,American government is designed to have components that are not directly accountable to the public. The crew discusses why Sarah Palin may not be a shoe-in for a vacant House seat in Alaska. Nate Silver and Galen Druke open the mailbag and answer listener questions, including how much it would cost to "fix polling" and why Vice President Harris is polling less favorably than President Biden. The crew discusses what the future of the Build Back Better bill might look like in the Senate and why the provisions in the bill are more popular than the bill itself. Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb joins the podcast to discuss Americas unpreparedness for COVID-19 and how the country should prepare for the next pandemic. (30 for 30, FiveThirtyEight, Radiotopia) and the TED Audio Collective, Good Sport is your guide through an array of stadiums . The crew discusses the various types of legislation different states may adopt if Roe v. Wade is overturned, and how those policies jibe with local public opinion. The crew discusses the political fallout from the Supreme Courts decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. The crew breaks down a poll that asked Americans to identify from good to evil and lawful to chaotic on the Dungeons and Dragons alignment chart. His new book is called "The Engagement: Americas Quarter-Century Struggle Over Same-Sex Marriage.". The crew checks in on the California recall election and other upcoming races, and talks about how a Trump endorsement is shaping a Wyoming primary. Nate and Galen discuss the latest twists in the midterms and answer listener questions in this installment of "Model Talk." The Sporkful production team includes Dan Pashman, Emma Morgenstern, Andres O'Hara, Tracey Samuelson, and Jared O'Connell. Recent polls have sent some contradictory messages, but the long and short of it is that seven races are now separated by three points or less polling average. Then, Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio joins the pod to break down a new poll that asked Latino Americans which party they are favoring in the midterm elections. The first half of this episode originally aired on November 5, 2018, and was produced by Dan Pashman, Anne Saini, and Aviva DeKornfeld, with editing by Gianna Palmer and mixing by Dan Dzula. The crew asks whether comparisons to former President Donald Trump's own classified document scandal are apt. A message from Martine. The crew also looks at changes the Democratic Party is hoping to make to the 2024 presidential primary calendar. The crew discusses potential sticking points in the Democrats' infrastructure plan and debates whether it should be considered bipartisan if a sizable portion of Republican voters support it, but Republican lawmakers do not. And they look at the experiences of urban Republicans and rural Democrats in a country increasingly sorted geographically and politically. But you can form your own by listening and learning (and learning how to listen). In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Smialek argues that over the past century, through successive crises, the Fed has accumulated the power to choose winners and losers . They also ask why support for gun control measures hasn't translated into new laws and look at steps the Pew Research Center is taking to ensure they have a representative sample of Republicans in their panel surveys. Make sure you select the language your Podcast episode is recorded in when uploading your audio. With midterm elections in the rearview mirror, Galen and Nate open up the mail bag to answer lingering questions about the results. Feb. 25, 2021. info. Release date: 24 June 2015 Show more In this late-night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke put their Model Talk hats on and discuss the initial results from the 2022 midterms. They also look ahead to how the Department of Justice will navigate the complexities of deciding whether to bring charges against Trump and how a Republican majority in the House could respond. Listen to FiveThirtyEight Politics on Spotify. Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Heather Boushey, joins the podcast to discuss what is in the American Rescue Plan and why. The crew debates which states should vote first in the presidential primaries if the Iowa caucuses were to go away. No place like 'Nam. They also ask whether we should be skeptical of polls showing Democrats performing well in parts of the Midwest where polls have repeatedly underestimated Republicans. Transcript for What if America had a lot more political parties? We hear from two people involved in the progressive movement in New York City about their thoughts on whats happening in the race and how progressivism is shaping politics more broadly. They also debate whether the AARP is correct in assessing that women voters over the age of 50 are likely to decide the outcome of the 2022 midterms. They also consider whether a new poll showing that America's reputation has rebounded abroad is a good or bad use of polling. fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win Republicans win 16 in 100 16 in 100 . The crew discusses how Americans are feeling about COVID-19 and what types of restrictions they do and don't support after almost two years. They also review the mostly finalized congressional maps for the cycle and discuss new polling on American polarization. Tensions between the U.S. and China have grown in recent years and, in this installment, the crew looks at changing public opinion of China and how it could shape American politics. Rev. What does it take to make democracy work? And what does Florida's new voting law tell us about the GOP's efforts to change the way Americans vote, and the party's larger motivations? In the main event, former light The crew debates whether the Democratic Party really is actually in disarray as it struggles to pass legislation and faces a difficult midterm year, or if its hurdles are usual for any party in power. The crew looks at how the Johnson & Johnson vaccine pause shaped public opinion of that vaccine and willingness to be vaccinated more broadly. The crew discuss the 2021 gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey and the very likely recall election in California. The crew asks why Queen Elizabeth II's passing has received such intense global press coverage. In 2018, the operations were transferred from ESPN to sister property ABC News (also under parent The Walt Disney Company ). By doing so we are missing another important divide, one that may actually run counter to the idea that America is hopelessly conflicted between red and blue. Tyler's intense research leads to stimulating and surprising . Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss why live caller surveys are no longer the gold standard in polling and what it means for the future of the industry. Just another site fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. The crew breaks down notable primary races in Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin. American politics has changed a lot in the twenty years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. It's a big election week for liberal democracies. NEW TOWN . During the span of 25 years, same-sex marriage went from being an unimaginable idea to settled law. Dec. 7, 2017 | Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS 03 / Black Representation In North Carolina The debate over how districts should be drawn to ensure that minority voters are represented in Congress. The crew hosts its first-ever 2024 Republican primary draft (they plan to follow up next week with a 2024 Democratic primary draft). The crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. June 2, 2016. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. A year later, Trump still appears to be the de facto leader of the party. They also check in on the upcoming Virginia governors race and discuss a FiveThirtyEight report about how Congress may have inadvertently legalized THC -- the main psychoactive compound in marijuana. Crime analyst Jeff Asher discussed what those numbers can -- and can't -- tell us, and explains the challenges in collecting crime data. They also discuss the accuracy of opinion polling conducted in authoritarian Russia and war-torn Ukraine. Please subscribe to the Dow-ballot on Apple Podcasts and leave . They also continue to track the types of candidates former President Trump has endorsed in the 2022 Republican primaries. But some Republicans are still jockeying for position to be the next leader of the party, the most prominent of which may be Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Sign up to get unlimited songs and podcasts with occasional ads. They also preview next week's mayoral election in Chicago and ask whether a new poll of Arizona's 2024 Senate race is actually telling us anything useful. Georgians handed control of the Senate to Democrats in a pair of dramatic runoffs and voted for a Democrat for president for the first time in 28 years. Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss the messages that Senators sent and whether we were able to glean anything about what kind of Justice Jackson would be. In the first "Model Talk" episode of the 2022 midterms cycle, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the factors behind that forecast. Dive in and Share your insights! The crew previews Tuesday's primaries in Georgia as well as contests in Arkansas, Alabama, Texas and Minnesota. The crew discusses how the scandals surrounding Walker have evolved over the course of his Senate campaign and how the latest could affect the outcome of the race. r/fivethirtyeight. But that doesnt stop us from talking about what we do know: that Republicans didnt make major gains in the Senate, and that the polls were pretty good this cycle. This is the final FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast episode of the Trump presidency. It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. They also analyze a new poll from the University of New Hampshire that shows the states likely GOP primary voters favoring Florida Gov. They also look back at 2021, try to pinpoint the most consequential political events of the year and discuss how their understanding of American politics was challenged. My mid-week morning train WFH reads: The SPAC Fad Is Ending in a Pile of Bankruptcies and Fire Sales: At least eight businesses that went public through mergers with "blank-check" companies have sought protection from creditors. Serial's new true-crime podcast, The Coldest Case in Laramie, revisits a 1985 murder. Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux speaks with Galen Druke about the Justices' arguments for overturning Roe v. Wade, where the legal debate goes next and how this contrasts and complements American opinion on abortion. 1 min read; Jun 05, 2022; Bagikan : parade of homes matterport . FiveThirtyEight Politics on Apple Podcasts 200 episodes FiveThirtyEight Politics ABC News News 4.5 19.2K Ratings FEB 21, 2023 What We Know About Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection What We Know About Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection It's a busy week! Find us at ThisDayPod.com. security jobs paying $30 an hour; fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke are joined by two climate modelers and authors of the latest IPCC report, Friederike Otto and Baylor Fox-Kemper. Happy holidays! They also consider whether the ensuing confirmation process will impact the countrys broader political environment in a Midterm election year. Lastly, the team analyzes how the educational divide is shaping American politics. Thanks! They also discuss ranked choice voting and the reasons for delays in New York City's final vote count in the mayoral election. Science reporter Maggie Koerth also joins to talk about shifting attitudes on climate change among Republicans. The book is the first big reported account of the 2020 campaign in its entirety and is written by Jonathan Allen, senior political analyst with NBC News, and Amie Parnes, senior correspondent for The Hill. The crew discusses how a bipartisan gun control deal was reached and if this unwritten legislation could be passed by the end of the year. The crew discusses what the political environment is likely to look like in 2022 based on history and current indicators. The crew debates whether a poll asking Americans which animals they could take on is a fight is a "good or bad use of polling." They also ask whether a new poll showing Biden's approval rating at just 33 percent deserves all the attention it's been getting. The team looks at the popularity of the Democrats' COVID relief plan and how both Democrats and Republicans are thinking about its provisions. They also debate whether phone or online polling is a better tool for gauging Americans' views on sensitive topics like the death penalty, and they preview a forthcoming report on how FiveThirtyEight's forecast models did in 2020. In light of new data showing union membership at its lowest point since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began counting, they also look at how that decline has shaped U.S. politics. Today, we wanted to share the first episode of the ABC News podcast series, "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson," which uncovers the former first lady's surprisingly powerful role in the Johnson presidency and includes history-making revelations about Lyndon B. Johnsons time in office. The posting for the podcast's freelance audio editor position can be found here. He has also reported audio documentaries at FiveThirtyEight, including the monthslong series "The Gerrymandering Project." His work has been heard on NPR, WNYC, On The Media, CBC, Wisconsin Public Radio and the University of Cambridge's ELECTION podcast. As the broader electorate shifted left in 2020, compared to 2016, Latino voters shifted 8 percentage points to the right. Most recently, he ran and hosted 30 for 30 Podcasts, part of ESPN Films. Nate and Galen answer listener questions in this installment of Model Talk. Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. In this installment, Jennifer Merolla, a Professor of Political Science at UC Riverside, and Hannah Hartig, a research associate at Pew Research Center reflect on the political climate in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 and whether a similar American consensus is possible today. The crew discusses how Bidens approval rating may impact the midterm election, whether tracking Google search terms over time is a better barometer than traditional polling, and how Black voters are changing the political landscape of Georgia. Max Fisher, author of the new book, "The Chaos Machine: The Inside Story of How Social Media Rewired Our Minds and Our World," speaks with Galen about the impacts of social media on politics globally and in the U.S. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. - In her first-ever diary entry, recorded eight days after President John F. Kennedy is assassinated, Lady Bird presents a dramatic, cinematically detailed moment-by-moment account of those terrible hours in Dallas, and the days that follow. Its generally considered to be one of the most comprehensive pictures of trends within the electorate. The majority of the coverage did not show signs of bias, such as articles on immigration, midterm elections and the Jan. 6 hearings. What does the bench of Democratic leadership look like beyond Biden? FiveThirtyEight's Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Tuesday night's primary elections.Website: http:. The Supreme Court Not So Much.
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